Global Aviation Market Outlook 2012

Airbus today released its 20-year forecast for the civil aviation industry (Boeing's has already been released) and it predicts nothing short of continued growth. Here are some of the key figures:

• 27,350 new passenger aircraft are to be built which, with retirements taken into account, brings the total fleet  to over 32,500 (an increase of 109%).
• 850 new freighter aircraft, leading to a total fleet of 2,900 (+82%)
• This brings total new aircraft deliveries to 28,200.

But the really important figure to look is the third:

• Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK) to increase by a factor of 2.5, from 5.1 trillion to 12.8 trillion per year. Twelve-point-eight trillion seats. It's an increase of 150%, and it's not just seats available on aircraft (ASKs), it's the number of people paying for them.

Boeing's forecast is even more optimistic, seeing a demand for 34,000 new civil aircraft. Of these they believe that 68% will be narrowbodies, with widebodies and Very Large Aircraft (VLAs) making up 26%. 

Both companies give a total value for aircraft deliveries up to 2031 of around US$4 trillion. This is a tasty sum for whomever can get their hands on some of it. Of course the majority - around 60% - will be split between Boeing and Airbus (pretty much equally) with the remaining 40% split between the second-tier players such as Bombardier, Embraer, Comac etc.

Boeing notes some of the influences on the industry in the forthcoming two decades, including global economic growth of 3.2% leading to industry growth of around 5%, strategic aircraft utilisation to help offset fuel costs, emerging markets and business models.

These are mirrored by Airbus, who also add increasing population and internationalism. They say that "Aviation Mega-Cities" (those who handle more than 10,000 long-haul passengers per day) are driving demand for VLAs such as the A380. There are currently 42 classified as these by Airbus, and they predict this rising to over 90 by 2031.

Airbus' John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer Customers, who presented the 

market outlook in London today

Of course, all of this barely scratches the surface of the information provided by the two companies, but it demonstrates the continued faith that experts have in industry's recovery from the turbulent past few years.

I'll leave you with a quote from John Leahy, Airbus' Chief Operating Officer Customers; "...by 2031 four of the world’s biggest traffic flows will all be domestic - US, China, Intra Western Europe and India – and these account for a third of world traffic”

You can view the Boeing pages here, and the Airbus slideshow (in PDF format) here. 

You can also see the forecast from Bombardier here, and from Embraer here too.